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Friday, January 8, 2010

Daily View Friday 8 January 2010...

We started to get somewhat of a pullback today in some stocks, but nothing really meaningful yet. The indices haven't done anything wrong yet. Volume was lighter than the rest of the week, but still pretty decent. The market was broadly down this morning, but clawed back into the close. A pretty boring trading day, to be honest.

No trades today, though I had some buy orders on FUQI that failed to trigger. It broke out above the 50-day EMA today on pretty heavy volume, but my orders didn't hit. I'm not terribly concerned about that because this is just the beginning for FUQI. Today's breakout was on pretty powerful volume, and I now view the 50-day EMA as support. Most likely, I'll enter the trade on Monday by buying some in-the-money February calls (I'm thinking at the $20 strike or below), and then sell the January $22.50 calls against those calls in a quickie call spread just to make a couple extra bucks because I don't think FUQI would be able to take out $22.50 next week. Next week is expiration week, which is one time I like to put on the sell leg of call spreads.

Watching CRE trade is like watching paint dry. The darn thing doesn't move, but that's a function of its small volume. I'll typically disregard stocks with such low volume due to liquidity, but CRE's a special case.

RGR continues its pullback from resistance. I think it's got further to fall. It could drop another 5-10% without doing anything wrong technically.

UTA is right at resistance still. This is another one I'll probably pull the trigger for on Monday. I'm liking the May $5 calls there, which I might call spread with the February $12.50 calls.

CEU's action today makes me think it's about to begin a small pullback, hopefully back towards the breakout level around $6.50 to provide a very low-risk entry point. The volume was significantly down today, which is a good thing.

And then there were ROST and ARO. This is exactly what I was afraid of about entering them based on yesterday's action (by contrast, this shows why I'm much more interested in entering CEU and FUQI). The fact that both ROST and ARO reached their highs early in the day and were unable to power higher showed that the bulls were basically out of steam. Today's gap down open in either name doesn't surprise me at all. ARO couldn't even hold onto the gap, and has now broken down further on heavy volume, albeit lighter than yesterday. I think ARO's got further to fall. ROST is not in as bad of shape as ARO here. Remember, ROST was able to hold its gap yesterday, but it failed to hold that today. My expectation here is ROST will pull back to fill that gap-up, and that's where I'm looking to buy (call it $44.25). Volume today in ROST was about average, and nowhere near as heavy as yesterday's.

Position: none

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation and is presented for informational purposes only.

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