Ok, so a couple updates on the resurrection of this blog. One, I've created a separate blog for my opinion writings. It can be found here. ( http://timsopinionblog.blogspot.com/ )
Two, I'm going to focus this blog more on longer timeframe positions (months or even years). It'll probably be more focused on value and dividend stock picks and sometimes the indices, with a lesson-type post here and there. However, I'm also going to use technical analysis to identify trends and buy points.
I'll do some shorter-term stuff, too, like index trades and dividend capture trades. My concern about getting too much into shorter-term stuff is simply frequency. Blogging about trades with timeframes measured in days can be difficult and stressful. I'll try to do it from time to time.
I'm taking Thanksgiving week off from work, so I'll have some time to get these posts going.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Rallying to Restore Sanity and/or Fear...
As we approach Election Day 2010, there will be rallies all throughout the nation. Some will rally for Republican candidates, some for Democrat candidates, some for Tea Party and other Independent candidates. But, there is one rally that should unite us all, one that transcends all the fear-mongering, partisan bickering, venomous rhetoric, and unbridled rage that we have seen American political discourse become. Naturally, I refer to the Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear, which will take place on Saturday, October 30th in Washington DC at the National Mall.
Here’s a little background about the rally and its premise. The Daily Show is a satirical news show on Comedy Central hosted by Jon Stewart. It’s meant to poke fun at news coverage and current events and is tailored after your evening national news. There’s also The Colbert Report, hosted by Stephen Colbert, which is a satirical take on news talk shows, likely tailored after Bill O’Reilly as Colbert claims. Knowing the rally is being put on by a pair of comedians, it’s very tempting to dismiss it, but please don’t make that mistake. They have a message.
The rally’s website, www.rallytorestoresanity.com, provides a great overview of who the rally is for and what it’s about. Two quotes sum it up quite nicely.
First is, “We’re looking for the people who think shouting is annoying, counterproductive, and terrible for your throat; who feel that the loudest voices shouldn’t be the only ones that get heard; and who believe that the only time it’s appropriate to draw a Hitler mustache on someone is when that person is actually Hitler.”
Next is, “Ours is a rally for the people who’ve been too busy to go to rallies, who actually have lives and families and jobs (or are looking for jobs) — not so much the Silent Majority as the Busy Majority. If we had to sum up the political view of our participants in a single sentence… we couldn’t. That’s sort of the point.”
These two quotes pretty much say it all. These people make up the majority of the population. We run the political spectrum from right to center to left. We believe that the venomous political climate currently in the USA is highly counterproductive. We want to solve problems. The belief of the people attending this rally, myself included, is that if the American people do not transcend partisanship, we cannot come together to solve the major problems our nation is facing. And, if there’s one thing we all probably agree on, it’s that the USA has problems that need fixing. I’ll spare you the long list. This is a rally for people who want to get away from partisanship and start actually solving our problems, who see something wrong with demonizing, insulting, and hating someone who disagrees with you, and who want to see sanity injected back into the American political dialogue.
I have two other points of note about the rally. First, you can also go to www.saneornot.com to see some of the signage that may or may not be present at the rally. There are some great signs there. Second, the rally is actively encouraging donations to the Trust for the National Mall. Further, all proceeds from merchandise sales will also be donated to that very same trust. As the name implies, the Trust is responsible for the upkeep of the National Mall. I think it’s pretty important because it’s where the monuments to some of our greatest leaders reside, and these need the funding for upkeep so future Americans can remember the greatness of these leaders.
This is a rally calling for the restoration of civility to American political discourse. It’s a call for a refocusing of our energies away from tearing each other down and back on working together to solve the huge problems our nation is facing. Every single American knows that we have the talent, work ethic, and determination to fix the ills that plague our nation. We just need to get ourselves recalibrated on combating our problems instead of each other.
If you attend, you also have the added benefit of being in Washington DC when all the politicians are away, many in desperate struggles to keep their jobs. There is no saner time to be in Washington DC than when the politicians are back home. I’ll be there. Will you?
Here’s a little background about the rally and its premise. The Daily Show is a satirical news show on Comedy Central hosted by Jon Stewart. It’s meant to poke fun at news coverage and current events and is tailored after your evening national news. There’s also The Colbert Report, hosted by Stephen Colbert, which is a satirical take on news talk shows, likely tailored after Bill O’Reilly as Colbert claims. Knowing the rally is being put on by a pair of comedians, it’s very tempting to dismiss it, but please don’t make that mistake. They have a message.
The rally’s website, www.rallytorestoresanity.com, provides a great overview of who the rally is for and what it’s about. Two quotes sum it up quite nicely.
First is, “We’re looking for the people who think shouting is annoying, counterproductive, and terrible for your throat; who feel that the loudest voices shouldn’t be the only ones that get heard; and who believe that the only time it’s appropriate to draw a Hitler mustache on someone is when that person is actually Hitler.”
Next is, “Ours is a rally for the people who’ve been too busy to go to rallies, who actually have lives and families and jobs (or are looking for jobs) — not so much the Silent Majority as the Busy Majority. If we had to sum up the political view of our participants in a single sentence… we couldn’t. That’s sort of the point.”
These two quotes pretty much say it all. These people make up the majority of the population. We run the political spectrum from right to center to left. We believe that the venomous political climate currently in the USA is highly counterproductive. We want to solve problems. The belief of the people attending this rally, myself included, is that if the American people do not transcend partisanship, we cannot come together to solve the major problems our nation is facing. And, if there’s one thing we all probably agree on, it’s that the USA has problems that need fixing. I’ll spare you the long list. This is a rally for people who want to get away from partisanship and start actually solving our problems, who see something wrong with demonizing, insulting, and hating someone who disagrees with you, and who want to see sanity injected back into the American political dialogue.
I have two other points of note about the rally. First, you can also go to www.saneornot.com to see some of the signage that may or may not be present at the rally. There are some great signs there. Second, the rally is actively encouraging donations to the Trust for the National Mall. Further, all proceeds from merchandise sales will also be donated to that very same trust. As the name implies, the Trust is responsible for the upkeep of the National Mall. I think it’s pretty important because it’s where the monuments to some of our greatest leaders reside, and these need the funding for upkeep so future Americans can remember the greatness of these leaders.
This is a rally calling for the restoration of civility to American political discourse. It’s a call for a refocusing of our energies away from tearing each other down and back on working together to solve the huge problems our nation is facing. Every single American knows that we have the talent, work ethic, and determination to fix the ills that plague our nation. We just need to get ourselves recalibrated on combating our problems instead of each other.
If you attend, you also have the added benefit of being in Washington DC when all the politicians are away, many in desperate struggles to keep their jobs. There is no saner time to be in Washington DC than when the politicians are back home. I’ll be there. Will you?
Reviving the blog...
Ok, so a lot's been going on in my life the past few months and I left this thing by the way side. But it's coming back and it'll be a bit different than before.
For one thing, this won't just be a stock blog. I'm using this also as a place to editorialize. I figure it Bill O'Neill can do that with IBD's editorial section, I can do that here on my blog. :-p
Two, I'm not sure if I'm going to do stocks or indices here. I haven't decided yet.
Three, this won't be starting back up again until probably next week or so. There's a reason for that, and it's in my first editorial.
For one thing, this won't just be a stock blog. I'm using this also as a place to editorialize. I figure it Bill O'Neill can do that with IBD's editorial section, I can do that here on my blog. :-p
Two, I'm not sure if I'm going to do stocks or indices here. I haven't decided yet.
Three, this won't be starting back up again until probably next week or so. There's a reason for that, and it's in my first editorial.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Weekly View Friday 5 February 2010...
Weekly Review:
We had a couple days of bounce, but then it was straight back down until the last hour on Friday. The real dip-buyers continue to be MIA, but many domestic indices are approaching their 200-day EMAs (and many foreign indices have broken their 200-day EMAs).
Weekly Preview:
Earnings continue to slow, as many of the big names have already reported. As with last week, we're still oversold, perhaps more so, and a bounce is probably coming (again). This correction is a good thing.
Earnings season keeps going this week. Here's a breakdown of the ones I'm watching day by day. Note that when I say, "For [blank] morning," I mean the stock reports earnings either after the close the previous day or before the open on that day.
Monday: BWP, CVS, HAR, HAS, HS, L, LO, MCY, NTE, GOLD, NDAQ,
Tuesday: ADCT, ANDE, AINV, AEC, ATML, AXS, CPT, CRL, CMP, ERTS, ESLR, FWRD, GFA, HIG, HIMX, IUSA, LNCR, LNC, NUAN, OMI, PIKE, SLRY, SWI, TCK, TMRK, PFG, TRID, VMC, ACM, AGCO, AGU, ANR, BIIB, BJS, CAM, CE, CHD, CTSH, CGEN, CVH, CYNO, EOG, IACI, ITUB, KUB, MLM, TAP, NYX, PHM, TIN, KO, UBS, VSH,
Wednesday: ASEI, BIDU, CPST, CERN, LGF, NTGR, DIS, XL, MT, BHP, BSX, BHS, CCE, CSC, SCOR, DF, DISCK, ELN, EQIX, FORR, ICE, ID, LNCE, LVLT, MMC, OMC, SNY, SNI, S, NYT, WYN
Thursday: ATVI, AMKR, STV, CLB, XRAY, ELON, RE, LFT, MAS, PRE, PAA, PRU, ALL, VALE, AKNS, ALU, ARE, ALXN, AN, BWA, CS, DVA, DYP, ECA, EXPE, FLIR, GPI, JASO, LH, MFC, MAR, MFE, OZM, PTEN, PEP, PM, SKYW, STO, STRA, THS, VFC, VIA, WWE,
Friday: A, ACL, AB, BJRI, NILE, BWLD, CEPH, CMG, CSTR, BGC, IPAS, TUNE, MOH, NED, PNRA, PNSN, PRAA, RNWK, STMP, CAKE, DUK, IR, NAT, PDS, SAAB, UPL,
Monday: PAAS,
For a preview of this week's major economic announcements, I'll send you here. Michael McDonough does a better job of summing this stuff up than I could. Since this is a stock-picking blog versus an economics blog, I typically won't talk about this kind of stuff. Also, for a better preview of the week's market-related events, I'd recommend going here. TheStreet.com typically has a good weekly preview article for more stock-related events.
Position: None
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation and is presented for informational purposes only.
Links in the post: http://fiateconomics.com/ , http://www.thestreet.com/
We had a couple days of bounce, but then it was straight back down until the last hour on Friday. The real dip-buyers continue to be MIA, but many domestic indices are approaching their 200-day EMAs (and many foreign indices have broken their 200-day EMAs).
Weekly Preview:
Earnings continue to slow, as many of the big names have already reported. As with last week, we're still oversold, perhaps more so, and a bounce is probably coming (again). This correction is a good thing.
Earnings season keeps going this week. Here's a breakdown of the ones I'm watching day by day. Note that when I say, "For [blank] morning," I mean the stock reports earnings either after the close the previous day or before the open on that day.
Monday: BWP, CVS, HAR, HAS, HS, L, LO, MCY, NTE, GOLD, NDAQ,
Tuesday: ADCT, ANDE, AINV, AEC, ATML, AXS, CPT, CRL, CMP, ERTS, ESLR, FWRD, GFA, HIG, HIMX, IUSA, LNCR, LNC, NUAN, OMI, PIKE, SLRY, SWI, TCK, TMRK, PFG, TRID, VMC, ACM, AGCO, AGU, ANR, BIIB, BJS, CAM, CE, CHD, CTSH, CGEN, CVH, CYNO, EOG, IACI, ITUB, KUB, MLM, TAP, NYX, PHM, TIN, KO, UBS, VSH,
Wednesday: ASEI, BIDU, CPST, CERN, LGF, NTGR, DIS, XL, MT, BHP, BSX, BHS, CCE, CSC, SCOR, DF, DISCK, ELN, EQIX, FORR, ICE, ID, LNCE, LVLT, MMC, OMC, SNY, SNI, S, NYT, WYN
Thursday: ATVI, AMKR, STV, CLB, XRAY, ELON, RE, LFT, MAS, PRE, PAA, PRU, ALL, VALE, AKNS, ALU, ARE, ALXN, AN, BWA, CS, DVA, DYP, ECA, EXPE, FLIR, GPI, JASO, LH, MFC, MAR, MFE, OZM, PTEN, PEP, PM, SKYW, STO, STRA, THS, VFC, VIA, WWE,
Friday: A, ACL, AB, BJRI, NILE, BWLD, CEPH, CMG, CSTR, BGC, IPAS, TUNE, MOH, NED, PNRA, PNSN, PRAA, RNWK, STMP, CAKE, DUK, IR, NAT, PDS, SAAB, UPL,
Monday: PAAS,
For a preview of this week's major economic announcements, I'll send you here. Michael McDonough does a better job of summing this stuff up than I could. Since this is a stock-picking blog versus an economics blog, I typically won't talk about this kind of stuff. Also, for a better preview of the week's market-related events, I'd recommend going here. TheStreet.com typically has a good weekly preview article for more stock-related events.
Position: None
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation and is presented for informational purposes only.
Links in the post: http://fiateconomics.com/ , http://www.thestreet.com/
Daily View Friday 5 February 2010...
Friday was a whole bunch of ugly until the final hour, when a rumour of a Greek bailout hit the wires and caused a massive short squeeze, allowing the market to largely undo the damage done earlier in the day, and in some cases, close green. I am not surprised at all by this, and let me explain why. In short-term downtrends, like what we've been in for the past few weeks, the bears tend to cover their shorts on Friday afternoon to lock in profits ahead of the weekend. This is pretty common knowledge on the Street. This reduces downside pressure on the market and actually puts upside pressure on it as the shorts cover. But, to bring in actual buyers, not just short-covering, you have to give them a catalyst. What better catalyst than a rumour pertaining to a solution to one of the market's recent major worries (Greece, which the smart crowd has known for months was a problem even though it just hit the headlines in the past couple weeks, but I digress)? This rumour sparks actual buying. It's a bit too perfect to be a coincidence, and I have no doubt someone strategically leaked the rumour at just the right time to the media. It happens ALL THE TIME on the Street. Check out this video from Jim Cramer about a similar matter he made several years ago.
I closed my CBI calls today. It broke below support, as I feared it would yesterday due to the increased volume on yesterday's downdraft.
ROST has a little uptrend going, and I'm liking a buy in this one.
We're seeing some big breakdowns, as well. EME, FUQI, JST, JTX, and NEU all broke down. My FUQI calls are pretty much worthless, of course.
The shorts are all working, and TSL just rallied back nicely. This could be shorted here. CHRW, EJ, NTES, QCOM, and R also appear to have further downside. ARO and GFRE also look like they could be shorted here.
I'm going to clean out the watchlist a bit this weekend.
Position: Long CBI, FUQI
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation and is presented for informational purposes only.
Links in the post: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRa0B34jMOQ
I closed my CBI calls today. It broke below support, as I feared it would yesterday due to the increased volume on yesterday's downdraft.
ROST has a little uptrend going, and I'm liking a buy in this one.
We're seeing some big breakdowns, as well. EME, FUQI, JST, JTX, and NEU all broke down. My FUQI calls are pretty much worthless, of course.
The shorts are all working, and TSL just rallied back nicely. This could be shorted here. CHRW, EJ, NTES, QCOM, and R also appear to have further downside. ARO and GFRE also look like they could be shorted here.
I'm going to clean out the watchlist a bit this weekend.
Position: Long CBI, FUQI
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation and is presented for informational purposes only.
Links in the post: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRa0B34jMOQ
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Daily View Thursday 4 February 2010...
The ugly came back today with a vengeance. We started the day with a big gap-down open on the indices and we never looked back, as we have now pretty much fully erased the oversold bounce from earlier this week. Volume picked up today as we took out last week's lows. There's absolutely nothing good I can say about today's action.
We're learning now just how much of a disaster the European Union really is. We saw it today in the earnings report of STD. Tomorrow, we have the big annual jobs report on tap. You know, the one that may have underestimated job losses in the past year by about a million or so. :-p Stupid birth/death model, but I digress. The market is clearly not expecting anything good there, either.
We're getting more and more oversold as we approach various support levels. The action definitely got ugly today, but if there's even a slight upside surprise tomorrow morning, we could have a snap back higher.
I made no trades today because I was in meetings most of the day. CBI is now a bit disconcerting to me, though. It bounced a bit this week, which I expected because the volume on its first selloff leg really wasn't that fierce. Today, however, marked a noticeable surge in volume as it sold off. That said, it held the 50-day EMA. CBI is holding tough. If it drops below this week's lows, however, I'll sell and take my loss.
Pretty much every short I mentioned dropped hard today. Too bad I wasn't in any of them. That's the thing about shorting versus going long. When you short, the declines are much quicker and much more vicious once they start, whereas going long usually entails a gradual grind higher. It makes sense if we think about the emotions involved. Either way, it's fear. When a stock is rising, one fears missing the profit, but when a stock is dropping, one fears the loss of capital. Obviously, the latter's going to be a more powerful fear because in that case, you lose money versus in the former where you simply don't win money. Losing is not the same as not winning. It's the way our minds are wired generally. So, the downdrafts set in much quicker and are much more violent. That means I have to be a bit more willing to be anticipatory with my shorts, rather than reactionary. Shorting isn't simply the inverse of going long.
I'm actually pondering a format change for the blog and my general approach. In a nutshell, I've realized that I have trouble trying to watch so many stocks for short timeframe trades and I've realized that I have an easier time if I focus on the indices. It narrows down my universe for daytrading and short timeframe trades, which is very important for me because I have a tendency to try to watch everything and subsequently miss everything. So, I'm considering shifting my focus on short-term stuff more towards the indices and picking stocks more from a longer-term perspective. That was part of the original goal of the blog, anyway. I'll probably shift it to picking a new longer-term stock play each week while updating daily about the current picks and the action in the indices. So, the watchlist will probably be pretty well cleaned out and rebuilt again.
Position: Long CBI
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation and is presented for informational purposes only.
We're learning now just how much of a disaster the European Union really is. We saw it today in the earnings report of STD. Tomorrow, we have the big annual jobs report on tap. You know, the one that may have underestimated job losses in the past year by about a million or so. :-p Stupid birth/death model, but I digress. The market is clearly not expecting anything good there, either.
We're getting more and more oversold as we approach various support levels. The action definitely got ugly today, but if there's even a slight upside surprise tomorrow morning, we could have a snap back higher.
I made no trades today because I was in meetings most of the day. CBI is now a bit disconcerting to me, though. It bounced a bit this week, which I expected because the volume on its first selloff leg really wasn't that fierce. Today, however, marked a noticeable surge in volume as it sold off. That said, it held the 50-day EMA. CBI is holding tough. If it drops below this week's lows, however, I'll sell and take my loss.
Pretty much every short I mentioned dropped hard today. Too bad I wasn't in any of them. That's the thing about shorting versus going long. When you short, the declines are much quicker and much more vicious once they start, whereas going long usually entails a gradual grind higher. It makes sense if we think about the emotions involved. Either way, it's fear. When a stock is rising, one fears missing the profit, but when a stock is dropping, one fears the loss of capital. Obviously, the latter's going to be a more powerful fear because in that case, you lose money versus in the former where you simply don't win money. Losing is not the same as not winning. It's the way our minds are wired generally. So, the downdrafts set in much quicker and are much more violent. That means I have to be a bit more willing to be anticipatory with my shorts, rather than reactionary. Shorting isn't simply the inverse of going long.
I'm actually pondering a format change for the blog and my general approach. In a nutshell, I've realized that I have trouble trying to watch so many stocks for short timeframe trades and I've realized that I have an easier time if I focus on the indices. It narrows down my universe for daytrading and short timeframe trades, which is very important for me because I have a tendency to try to watch everything and subsequently miss everything. So, I'm considering shifting my focus on short-term stuff more towards the indices and picking stocks more from a longer-term perspective. That was part of the original goal of the blog, anyway. I'll probably shift it to picking a new longer-term stock play each week while updating daily about the current picks and the action in the indices. So, the watchlist will probably be pretty well cleaned out and rebuilt again.
Position: Long CBI
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation and is presented for informational purposes only.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
CHRW and R (Short)...
I've got a pair of shorts tonight. Normally, I wouldn't combine two picks in the same post, but I am here. The reason is both are truckers and both have similar charts and both reported earnings today. CH Robinson Worldwide and Ryder both disappointed the markets today with their earnings and both look destined to fall. In the short term, I believe CHRW has better downside, but in the long term, I believe R has better downside. So, I'd be inclined to end up taking a combined full normal position size for me, but divided in half between these two. If a position for you is normally 10% of your portfolio, I'd commit 5% to both names to reach 10%, for example.
The technical setup is pretty straightforward here. We have two stocks who broke their 200-day EMAs on heavy volume and left gaps behind. Furthermore, we have two stocks who broke down out of multi-month bases, leaving a lot of overhead resistance behind. These are decisive breakdowns, and I expect any effort to rally will be met with aggressive selling and shorting. Transports in particular are a good place to look to short if you are bearish on the economy and/or expect a double-dip scenario to play out (which I am and I do). Even if you disagree with that and have your portfolio positioned accordingly, a short in either or both of these through puts would provide a nice hedge.
As for the options, I'm looking for a multi-month decline, so I'm willing to go a bit further out in time, but I also believe there will be a more immediate decline following a little relief rally. So, in CHRW, I'm looking at some more near-dated contracts, say a put spread involving the purchase o the February $55 puts and sale of the February $50 puts. Going a bit further out in time, I'm looking at creating another call spread involving the May $55 puts and the aforementioned February $50 puts. I'll of course look to enter the buy leg on the rally and enter the sell legs on the drop. R is a bit trickier because its chain has wider bid/ask spreads. I think R is going to get some strong support around $30, so I'd be inclined to sell puts around the $30 strike. For instance, I'd consider buying the May $4o puts and then looking to sell the May $30 puts.
Position: None
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation and is presented for informational purposes only.
The technical setup is pretty straightforward here. We have two stocks who broke their 200-day EMAs on heavy volume and left gaps behind. Furthermore, we have two stocks who broke down out of multi-month bases, leaving a lot of overhead resistance behind. These are decisive breakdowns, and I expect any effort to rally will be met with aggressive selling and shorting. Transports in particular are a good place to look to short if you are bearish on the economy and/or expect a double-dip scenario to play out (which I am and I do). Even if you disagree with that and have your portfolio positioned accordingly, a short in either or both of these through puts would provide a nice hedge.
As for the options, I'm looking for a multi-month decline, so I'm willing to go a bit further out in time, but I also believe there will be a more immediate decline following a little relief rally. So, in CHRW, I'm looking at some more near-dated contracts, say a put spread involving the purchase o the February $55 puts and sale of the February $50 puts. Going a bit further out in time, I'm looking at creating another call spread involving the May $55 puts and the aforementioned February $50 puts. I'll of course look to enter the buy leg on the rally and enter the sell legs on the drop. R is a bit trickier because its chain has wider bid/ask spreads. I think R is going to get some strong support around $30, so I'd be inclined to sell puts around the $30 strike. For instance, I'd consider buying the May $4o puts and then looking to sell the May $30 puts.
Position: None
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation and is presented for informational purposes only.
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