The markets were down pretty hard today. It was not pretty. The big disappointment was QCOM, a large component of the Nasdaq 100 who happened to be down about 14% today. In other news, Big Ben was confirmed for a second term, which is probably a market-friendly development. The big aftermarket reports were MSFT and AMZN, and we have GDP news in the morning.
No trades today in any account. I'm not seeing much I want to buy right now, but I'm also not seeing much I want to short. The market has had a decisive change in character the past two weeks, and I now believe we're in a market where one can actually make money on the short side.
As far as the watchlist goes, I'm actually considering a short of ARO. Resistance is looking like it's setting in and I believe the stock could return to the previous lows, which is ~15% downside from current levels with maybe 3% risk (I wouldn't give it much room above the 50/200-day EMAs).
CBI is holding tough. I considered adding to my position today, but elected not to. If it breaks down from here, it's got further to fall and I'll cut my losses.
CRE's powering higher. I'm wishing I loaded up more aggressively at lower levels, but the solid accumulation in a declining market suggests to me that maybe the market thinks the liquidation will be better than I'm currently thinking.
I still want to see rallies in EJ and NTES before getting short of them.
SPAR is interesting me on the long side, too. It's pulled back right to the 50/200-day EMAs (and the breakout level I mentioned before). Furthermore, the volume on its declines has been very mild. I'm liking this one for a long at current levels with a stop below the 50/200-day EMAs.
RGR, ROST, and IACI are also holding tough.
Position: long CBI, CRE, RGR
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation and is presented for informational purposes only.
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